Making investment decisions based on the outcome of presidential elections is unlikely to result in reliable excess returns for investors. At best, any positive outcome will likely be the result of random luck. At worst, it can lead to costly mistakes. This presentation takes a historical look at how major US, international developed, and emerging markets indices have performed during or after a US presidential election.

Market Returns During an Election Year

The financial markets have rewarded long-term investors. People expect a positive return on the capital they supply, and historically, the equity and bond markets throughout the world have provided growth of wealth that has more than offset inflation. Companies compete with each other for investment capital, and millions of investors compete with each other to find the most attractive returns. This competition quickly drives prices to fair value, ensuring that no investor can expect greater returns without bearing greater risk. The chart above shows how the growth of $1 is affected by the level of risk an investor is willing to take. It also shows that any level of risk taken has historically outpaced inflation.

Many investors and investment managers strive to beat the market by taking advantage of pricing “mistakes” and attempting to predict the future. Too often, this proves costly and futile, due to holding the wrong securities at the wrong time, meanwhile, markets are succeeding. Instead of allowing the media to sway you into making impulsive and reactive decisions about your investments, or gambling on hunches, why not let the markets work for you?

When you try to outwit the market, you compete with the collective knowledge of all investors. By harnessing the market’s power, you put their knowledge to work in your portfolio. Markets integrate the combined knowledge of all participants, and enables competition among those who voluntarily agree to transact. We believe that all of this powerful information drives security prices to fair value, and that differences in performance are largely attributed to asset allocation decisions, and differences in average risk.

We know that investing in the market means taking risks. We also know that not investing means taking risks, because your money today will buy less in the future. We want investors to incorporate the vast, complex network of information, expectations, and human behavior that we believe markets reflect, into their portfolio design. This powerful view of market equilibrium has profound investment implications.

This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.

The report also illustrates the performance of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic: Presidential Elections and the Stock Market.

Quarterly Market Review

The decision to take a loan out against a 401(k) needs to be well thought out. It is tempting to look at the stack of funds sitting there in the company 401(k) plan, and think of it as your own piggy back to borrow against.  It’s very important to remember that these funds are supposed to help support a retirement that could last 30 years or longer. A wrong move can have lasting and devastating consequences. I recently had a client just ask about taking a loan against his plan to fund a down payment of a new home. There are several key points we considered:

Pros

Taking out a loan against your 401(k) is a very simple process and can be done quickly. Most plans offer online access to set-up and process loans.  So in need of quick cash to close the home, this is an easy solution. In addition, if you have bad credit, the interest rate is usually favorable since you are basically paying yourself back.   Of course, this is much better than high interest credit cards or other sources.  Most loans have a 5-year payment term, but for a first-tome home buyer, it is usually 10 years. This can help lower the repayment amount per paycheck.

Cons

This is where we have to discuss human behavior. You have to be very careful when taking out a loan.   If you need a loan, that tells me you might not be saving outside of the 401(k) for the down payment. If this is because money is tight, adding another loan to repay may make things worse. Developing and focusing on a savings strategy might be more appropriate. Also, it is tempting to stop your contributions if you have an outstanding loan, so you will lose on the pre-tax contributions and company match benefits. This is a huge retirement savings opportunity that is gone and lost forever. Finally, if you leave your job you usually have to repay the entire loan quickly which could lead to other bad financial decisions, as well as limiting your career options if you feel you can’t leave your company. If you do leave and the loan is not repaid, the loan is declared a withdraw, and taxes and penalties are due. 

In general, the pros and cons really need to be considered in the decision making process. While a quick fix for needed cash, most of the time we would like to consider other options or strategies instead of a 401(k) loan.

(Research above shows only 20% of all active mutual funds beat their corresponding index over a 10 year time frame.  And of those, only 37% continued over the next 5 years. This is only 205 of 2758 mutual funds that beat their index over a 15 year time frame.  It’s nearly impossible to pick the right ones)

Some investors select mutual funds based on past returns. However, funds that have outperformed in the past do not always persist as winners. The most important guideline to remember is: If a fund does not fit into your overall investment strategy, it’s a dangerous choice no matter how it’s performed in the recent past.

Investors have a tendency to weight recent events more heavily than history. It’s nearly impossible for the typical investor to choose a fund that had negative returns in the previous year. Yet that fund, historically, may have proven to be an outperformer in its category. And the largest hurdle is that most investors don’t even think they are chasing performance. Research shows, however, that nearly every mutual fund outperforms individual investors in the fund.

Instead of chasing performance, investors should follow on these 4 rules:

1. Develop an investment strategy and COMMIT to it

Every investor should have a disciplined investing strategy and stick to it, through bull and bear markets. A relationship with a professional financial advisor is the first step to developing this strategy, and it insures that you’ll take the right actions at the right time.

2. Rebalance your portfolio

Rebalancing your portfolio will keep you from buying high and selling low.  Investors who chase returns, are adding to a piece of the investment pie that’s already too big. If you rebalance your portfolio once a year, you’ll be insured that you’re adding to the smaller piece of the pie, and inherently buying low and selling high.

3.  Remain Invested

Don’t be tempted to pull your investments from the market when it falls. These are the most opportune times to increase long-term returns through rebalancing.

4. Focus on your personal goals

Your personal goals should drive your investing strategy. Keep that in the front of your mind and it will be much easier to remain disciplined.

Remember, past performance alone provides little insight into a fund’s ability to outperform in the future. A more disciplined approach has proven to be the best way to increase-long term performance.

Recently, a Park + Elm client asked for some advice on handling his finances now that he is a new business owner. Small business owners are in a unique financial position, so we created a 5 step process to follow during your ownership years. Many self-employed investors won’t have the same range of assets that a life-long employee would have at retirement, so planning for your eventual exit from the business is also crucial.

Don’t try to outguess the market

The market’s pricing power works against mutual fund managers who try to outsmart other participants through stock picking or market timing. As evidence, only 17% of US equity mutual funds have survived and outperformed their benchmarks over the past 15 years. Even so, traditional investment approaches strive to beat the market by taking advantage of pricing “mistakes” and attempting to predict the future. Too often, these approaches prove costly and futile. Predictions go awry and managers may hold the wrong securities at the wrong time, missing the strong returns that markets can provide. Meanwhile, capital-based economies thrive—not because markets fail but because they succeed.

What if the typical investor decided not to bet their life savings on tips and hunches? We know from our first piece in this series, that trying to guess the most underpriced stocks is betting against 98.6 Million other investors each day; and that equity prices are fair and efficient. We also know that markets throughout the world have a history of rewarding investors for supplied capital. Instead of guessing, we should lean on academics and science to guide the way to designing a portfolio that delivers what the markets offer. A financial plan based on the science of investing frees you to focus on what matters – diversification, lowering costs, and discipline.

Many of the greatest advancements in Finance have come from academia and research. Academic research has identified the sources of investment returns historically, and applying academic insights to practical strategies can help investors benefit from what the capital markets have to offer.

There is a different way to invest. We should think about why we invest, what we know from research, and apply proven scientific methods of expected returns to our portfolio design. We focus on gaining insights about markets and returns from academic research, reducing expenses, rebalancing, and taking on an acceptable amount of risk based on scientific dimensions of expected returns. Let markets work for you by taking advantage of sensible, well-diversified, low-cost portfolios backed by decades of research and practical experience.

Park + Elm Investment Advisers, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor offering Investment Advisory Services. The custodian for our client’s funds is The Charles Schwab Corporation. Park + Elm Investment Advisers, LLC is not affiliated with The Charles Schwab Corporation. We are registered with the Indiana Secretary of State Securities Division and additional information about us can be found on our ADV at http://www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/. The information in the brochure has not been approved, verified, or otherwise endorsed by the SEC or by any state securities authority. The brochure is for informational purposes only. It is not to be construed as tax, legal, or investment advice.